While the increase in September signals a slight recovery in activity, the underlying data suggest ongoing hesitation from fleets and OEMs. Cancellations climbed to 25% of gross orders, primarily within the dry van segment, indicating that many buyers are still taking a wait-and-see approach heading into the 2026 order season.
FTR’s data also shows that total year-to-date net orders reached 120,750 units, up 23% compared to 2024. However, this apparent strength is heavily influenced by backloaded demand from late 2024, as many buyers accelerated activity in the wake of post-election economic shifts.
On the production side, U.S. trailer builds increased 5% month-over-month and 15% year-over-year in September, reaching 17,899 units. Year-to-date production totals 151,743 units, down 19% from the prior year.
Backlogs fell 9% month-over-month and 12% year-over-year to 74,824 units, pushing the backlog-to-build ratio to its lowest point since mid-2020 — just 4.2 months.
This widening gap between production and demand underscores the pressure OEMs face to balance output amid shifting freight conditions.
Senior Analyst Dan Moyer highlights that the U.S. trailer market continues to navigate a challenging mix of economic and policy headwinds.
“The U.S. trailer market faces mounting cost pressures and policy uncertainty amid rising global trade tensions, especially with China,” said Moyer.
“Separate from a threatened 100% tariff on all imports from China, the U.S. is imposing, effective November 9, a 100% tariff on imports of certain port cargo handling equipment from China, including intermodal chassis and parts.”
Moyer added that tariffs on steel, aluminum, and copper — expanded in August to include non-U.S. content in trailers and components — are driving up input costs and compressing margins.
“Larger, vertically integrated OEMs are better positioned to manage the impact while smaller firms face growing financial strain. Many fleets are delaying replacement, extending equipment life cycles, and slowing or stopping expansion.”
FTR expects the 2026 order season to begin later than usual as the market waits for clarity on both trade policy and freight volumes. Persistent cost inflation, shifting tariff structures, and slower freight activity could continue to weigh on new equipment investment through the remainder of 2025.
As Moyer notes, the current landscape rewards agility: “Fleets and OEMs that can manage through the uncertainty — balancing production discipline with strategic investment — will be best positioned when the cycle turns.”
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