Trucking Conditions Index for November Shows Optimistic Outlook for Carriers

FTR’s Trucking Conditions Index (TCI) for November 2024 recorded a significant rise, reaching a 3.02 reading compared to October’s modest 0.49. This marks the strongest carrier market conditions since April 2022, offering a welcome boost for the trucking industry.

The improvement in November’s TCI stems from a combination of factors. Lower fuel costs and a reduction in challenging rates have positively influenced the index, though these gains were partially offset by weaker utilization. Despite the recent improvement, FTR projects that the truck freight market will become consistently favorable for carriers by the second quarter of 2025. However, the outlook has softened somewhat due to weaker growth forecasts in freight demand, utilization, and rates.

Avery Vise, FTR’s vice president of trucking, remarked, “A few outliers aside, our forecast indicates positive TCI readings over the next couple of years, but it does not show the index more favorable for carriers than it was in November until the third quarter of this year. The first half of 2025 still looks to be one of transition from the tough market of the past couple of years to one in which carriers have greater ability to achieve a desirable margin. We will be watching Trump administration policy initiatives closely for any developments that might shift the trajectory of the truck freight market.”

Understanding the Trucking Conditions Index (TCI)

FTR’s Trucking Conditions Index is a comprehensive measure of the health of the U.S. truck market. It combines five critical metrics:

1. Freight volumes
2. Freight rates
3. Fleet capacity
4. Fuel prices
5. Financing costs

The resulting index offers a clear indication of industry conditions. Positive scores represent favorable conditions for carriers, while negative scores indicate challenges. Readings near zero reflect a neutral operating environment, and double-digit readings signal significant changes.

With November’s TCI showing marked improvement, the industry’s outlook provides a cautious sense of optimism. However, as FTR’s analysis highlights, the road ahead is one of transition, with carriers navigating a complex mix of economic and policy-driven factors.

To access charts suitable to accompany this press release:  https://www.ftrintel.com/trucking-conditions-index