Trucking Payroll Employment: A Revised Perspective on the Market

Key Takeaways from the Latest Payroll Employment Data

The trucking industry’s employment data has undergone a significant revision, altering our understanding of the market. While recent months have seen seasonally adjusted job gains, the increases are from a substantially weaker level of payroll employment due to a Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) benchmark revision. Below, we break down the latest data and its implications.

Revised data: A lower base for growth

• Trucking added 7,400 jobs from November through January.
• However, December’s employment base was revised down by 27,800 jobs, meaning recent gains are built on a lower foundation than previously thought.
• The total number of for-hire trucking jobs is now just 0.3% above pre-pandemic levels (February 2020), rather than the previously estimated 1.7% increase.

Segment-specific adjustments

• General freight truckload: The biggest revision, with 22,200 fewer jobs than earlier estimates. This cuts its post-pandemic job growth to 0.5% from a previously reported 4.3%.
• LTL (less-than-truckload): Unlike truckload, LTL payroll employment saw an upward revision of 12,800 jobs for November. However, overall employment in the sector remains 4.7% below pre-pandemic levels.
• Long-distance specialized trucking: A slight upward revision of 1,300 jobs, not enough to change the overall outlook.
• Local general freight & local specialized trucking: Both categories saw downward revisions of about 10,000 jobs each. In the case of local general freight, most of that drop occurred in January 2023, suggesting the closure of a sizeable carrier.

Non-payroll employment sees a steep decline

A key component of trucking employment that often goes unnoticed is non-payroll employment, which includes independent contractor drivers and small trucking operations whose workers are not captured by BLS payroll employment figures.

• Average non-payroll employment in trucking fell 16.3% in 2024 – the largest drop since 2009.
• This sharp decline suggests a significant contraction among small owner-operators and leased independent contractors.
• Truckload employment trends indicate that the reduction in non-payroll jobs aligns with the downturn in payroll employment throughout 2023.

While these numbers stem from two different data sources, the trends align with expectations – non-payroll employment rises in strong freight markets and falls when conditions weaken.

Don't miss an episode!

Trucking Market Update Podcast

This article was created from an excerpt from FTR's weekly Trucking podcast with Avery Vise.

Tune in here!

Employment in related sectors

The BLS revision also provided new insights into payroll employment in adjacent freight industries:

• Freight brokerage: The revised November employment estimate was 3,000 jobs lower, but this represents a minor adjustment in a workforce of nearly 265,000.
• Parcel & local delivery: Saw a sharp increase of 32,000 jobs in December, likely reflecting routine revisions.
• Warehousing & storage: The biggest upward revision, adding 72,000 jobs in December – but proportionally, this is a small adjustment in a sector with over 1.8 million employees.

What This Means for the Industry

1. Truckload employment has fundamentally shifted – the revised data indicates a far weaker recovery than previously thought, with only minimal post-pandemic job growth.
2. LTL employment is stabilizing, though still down from pre-pandemic levels.
3. Owner-operators and small trucking businesses are struggling, evidenced by the sharp drop in non-payroll employment.
4. Freight brokerage and warehousing continue to show resilience, though minor adjustments were made to their employment figures.

Looking ahead

While trucking employment appears to have bottomed out, sustained growth will depend on broader economic conditions and freight demand. As the industry navigates these shifts, understanding both payroll and non-payroll employment trends will be crucial for forecasting capacity and utilization.

Stay tuned for future insights as we continue monitoring the evolving trucking labor market.

Get weekly updates from Spot Market Insights from FTR and Truckstop!

Subscribe to our State Of Freight Today updates and never miss a podcast, blog or Spot Market Insight!

Join us for the must-attend event for supply chain professionals and gain the intelligence you need to drive your business forward!