The latest FTR Weekly Transportation Update highlights five developments that, taken together, frame the current freight environment: cost pressure, lean inventories, revenue stabilization, firm spot markets, and divergent modal performance.

Individually, none signal a breakout. Collectively, they suggest a market recalibrating rather than contracting.

1. Producer Pricing Reaccelerates — With Transportation Implications

January’s Producer Price Index rose 0.5% month-over-month, driven primarily by services, even as goods pricing declined due to falling energy. Year-over-year PPI eased slightly to 2.9%, still elevated relative to pre-pandemic norms.

Transportation-relevant details:

• Trailer PPI: +1.2% m/m, +7.4% y/y
• Aluminum pricing remains at record levels
• Commercial auto insurance premiums eased slightly m/m, with slower y/y growth

Context: Equipment and input costs remain structurally elevated. Even if freight rates stabilize, carrier cost bases are not resetting to prior-cycle levels.

2. Wholesale Inventories Are Lean — Demand Sensitivity Increases

Wholesale inventories relative to sales are now the leanest since April 2022 .

Sales strength was led by:

• Machinery (+6.4%)
• Electrical equipment (+2.7%)
• Professional equipment (+1.9%)

Context: Lean inventories reduce cushion. If restocking accelerates, freight volumes — particularly in industrial segments — could respond quickly.

3. Trucking Revenues Stabilize, Not Surge

For-hire trucking revenues rose 2.1% in 2025, following two years of decline . Q4 revenues were up 1.7% y/y, marking growth in six of the last seven quarters .

Total revenues approached $415 billion in 2025 .

Context: This is stabilization, not expansion. Revenues have recovered modestly, but costs remain elevated. Margin discipline remains central for carriers, and the pricing environment appears more balanced than volatile.

4. Spot Rates Normalize — But Remain Historically Strong

Weather-driven surges have eased, yet year-over-year spot comparisons remain strong:

• Refrigerated: ~+25%
• Dry van: ~+19%
• Flatbed: ~+11%

Flatbed rates have risen 13 out of 14 weeks.

Context: Capacity has not fully loosened. Seasonal patterns and equipment-specific tightness continue to support spot pricing above recent-year norms.

Spot Market Insights

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Spot Market Insights

5. Rail Strength, Port Softness — A Base-Effect Story

For the latest week:

• Total North American rail traffic: +12.2% y/y
• Carloads: +15.6%
• Intermodal: +9.3%

Agricultural commodities led gains. However, the four-week average is more moderate, with intermodal slightly negative.

Meanwhile, the Port of Long Beach reported -9.4% y/y TEU volume in January . Importantly, January was still the second-strongest on record — the decline reflects a tough 2025 comparison.

Context: Weekly rail strength is real, but broader averages are more measured. Port softness appears more statistical than structural.

The Broader Signal

Across pricing, inventories, revenues, and modal flows, the data does not point to acceleration — nor to renewed contraction.

Instead, it reflects:

• Elevated but stabilizing cost structures
• Lean supply chain inventories
• Moderate revenue recovery
• Firm but normalizing spot markets
• Modal divergence shaped by base effects

The freight market is operating in a narrower band — where incremental shifts in demand, inventory behavior, and cost inputs will matter more than broad-cycle headlines.

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