FTR’s preliminary data shows North American Class 8 net orders totaling 20,200 units in November, marking another month of weaker-than-seasonal activity. Orders declined 17% month-over-month and 44% year-over-year, falling well below the 10-year November average and underscoring ongoing caution among fleets.
Even with improved clarity around tariffs and the 2027 NOx rule, fundamentals remain too soft to drive a new equipment cycle.
Despite some policy improvements, several forces continue to hold back demand:
Fleets remain focused on cash preservation, maintenance discipline, and maximizing asset utilization rather than adding new tractors.
The market now has clearer direction on two key issues:
The updated structure is more measured than feared earlier in the year. While costs rise, the framework avoids major near-term disruption to sourcing or production.
Expected changes—particularly the likely removal of extended warranty requirements—may reduce the previously projected cost increases by nearly half.
These developments improve long-term planning, but they have not been sufficient to counteract weak freight conditions in the near term.
Both segments saw declines in November, but vocational equipment outperformed on a year-over-year basis. This reflects:
On-highway demand remains more sensitive to weak freight fundamentals and excess capacity.
Orders from September through November are down 36% year-over-year, a key period that typically shapes the next order cycle.
This cumulative pullback signals that fleets are still unwilling to commit to substantial 2026 orders until freight volumes, rates, and profitability show clear improvement.
Manufacturers and suppliers will continue to face limited forward visibility, and order activity is likely to remain uneven until freight fundamentals strengthen.
As the industry prepares for the next cycle, several factors will determine whether demand returns:
November’s Class 8 order data reinforces a market still defined by caution. Fleets are prioritizing financial discipline and operational efficiency while awaiting firmer freight and rate conditions.
The result: limited visibility and continued variability for OEMs and suppliers heading into 2026.
Access the accompanying chart here:
https://www.ftrintel.com/class-8-truck-orders
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