December Class 8 Orders Surge, but Fundamentals Remain Cautious

Written by Dan Moyer, Sr. Analyst, Commerical Vehicles | 1/7/26 2:00 PM

December delivered a notable spike in North American Class 8 truck orders, offering a moment of momentum in an otherwise constrained equipment market. According to FTR, preliminary December 2025 net orders totaled 42,200 units, the strongest monthly result since October 2022. Orders rose 108% month-over-month and 21% year-over-year, landing well above the 10-year December average of roughly 29,000 units.

At first glance, the headline number suggests a meaningful inflection. A closer look, however, shows that the December surge reflects a combination of policy-driven clarity and the release of pent-up demand, rather than a broad-based recovery in freight fundamentals.

What Drove the December Order Spike?

Several policy developments converged late in the year, improving visibility for fleets that had been delaying capital decisions:

Tariff clarity: Section 232 tariffs on Class 3–8 trucks, implemented November 1, proved less disruptive than many fleets had anticipated.
Emissions rule expectations: Market participants gained clearer insight into expected revisions to the EPA’s 2027 NOx standards, including the likely removal of extended warranty requirements while maintaining the emissions threshold.
Timing effects: Information around EPA plans circulated shortly before Thanksgiving, helping explain why order activity accelerated in December rather than November.

These factors reduced uncertainty enough for fleets to move forward with orders that had been sitting on the sidelines.

On-Highway Leads, but the Big Picture Is Mixed

Both on-highway and vocational segments posted strong month-over-month gains, but on-highway trucks accounted for most of the year-over-year increase. Despite December’s strength:

Cumulative 2026-season orders (September–December) remain down 22% year-over-year
Trailing 12-month orders total just over 22,000 units, underscoring how subdued demand has been overall

This divergence highlights an important dynamic: one strong month does not undo a prolonged period of caution.

Deferred Orders, Not a Demand Inflection

FTR’s assessment is clear that December’s activity reflects deferred purchases and early pre-buy behavior, not a sustained upturn.

Dan Moyer, senior analyst for commercial vehicles at FTR, noted that while policy clarity has improved, freight demand remains soft, fleet profitability is constrained, and cost pressures continue to shape capital discipline. In that context, December’s surge is best viewed as tactical ordering rather than a signal that the equipment cycle has turned.

Why This Matters for 2026 Planning

For fleets, OEMs, and suppliers, the December data reinforces several planning considerations:

Policy clarity helps unlock delayed decisions, but it cannot offset weak freight volumes on its own.
Pre-buy behavior tied to emissions rules may provide pockets of demand, but likely in fits and starts.
A durable recovery in Class 8 demand will require sustained improvement in freight rates, utilization, and broader economic conditions.

In other words, December provided relief from uncertainty—but not yet confirmation of a new growth cycle.

What to Watch Next

As 2026 unfolds, key signals to monitor include:

Final EPA rule details and timing
Freight demand and rate trends into mid-year
Fleet profitability and access to capital
Revisions to preliminary order data when final figures are released mid-month

Until those indicators align more decisively, the December order surge should be viewed as contextual strength, not a turning point.

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