Class 8 Truck Orders Drop Amid Rising Tariff Concerns and Economic Uncertainty

February Orders Fall Below Expectations

FTR reports that North American Class 8 net orders for February totaled 17,000 units, representing a sharp 31% month-over-month (m/m) decline and a 38% drop year-over-year (y/y). This figure falls well below the seven-year February average of 26,912 and signals increasing hesitation in the market.

For the first time this order season, cumulative net orders from September 2024 through February 2025 have turned negative y/y, slipping 3%. Over the past 12 months, total Class 8 orders stand at 266,900 units. The pullback in orders suggests a shift in fleet investment strategies, likely influenced by economic uncertainty and evolving trade policies.

Tariffs and Regulatory Pressures Are Reshaping the Industry

The commercial vehicle industry faces mounting challenges due to potential tariff increases and regulatory shifts. Dan Moyer, senior analyst, commercial vehicles, commented

"Significant U.S. tariffs could substantially increase costs for North American Class 8 trucks/tractors and related components. Approximately 45% of all Class 8 trucks built for the U.S. and Canadian markets will be subject to the 25% U.S. tariff on all imports from Canada and Mexico and planned Canadian counter tariffs. About 40% of U.S. Class 8 trucks are produced in Mexico, and roughly 65% of Canada’s Class 8 trucks are assembled in the U.S. Even if those tariffs went away, others affecting costs include those on steel and aluminum, goods imported from China, and perhaps others coming down the pike."

Adding to the complexity, the U.S. EPA’s 2027 NOx regulations are creating additional uncertainty in fleet replacement cycles. Carriers must weigh accelerating purchases to avoid future cost hikes versus delaying investments due to volatile pricing. February’s order numbers suggest that many fleets are taking a wait-and-see approach.

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Market Implications for OEMs and Fleets

• OEMs saw widespread order declines, with the on-highway segment experiencing the steepest drop.
• Vocational truck orders also declined, though to a lesser extent.
• Market uncertainty could disrupt production planning, forcing manufacturers to explore ways to mitigate tariff exposure.

While some OEMs may shift production strategies, such changes are costly, complex, and time-intensive, adding further uncertainty to industry planning.

Looking Ahead

FTR will release final February order data later this month as part of its North American Commercial Truck & Trailer Outlook.

For businesses and industry stakeholders, monitoring tariff negotiations, regulatory changes, and fleet investment trends will be critical in navigating the evolving landscape.

For more information:
📧 Contact FTR at sales@ftrintel.com
📞 Call (888) 988-1699 ext. 1

🔗 To access a chart accompanying this announcement, visit:
https://www.ftrintel.com/class-8-truck-orders