Class 8 Truck Orders Fall Below Seasonal Expectations Amid Tariff Uncertainty

Preliminary North American Class 8 Net Orders Decline in January

FTR reports that preliminary North American Class 8 net orders for January totaled 24,000 units, reflecting a 28% month-over-month (m/m) decline and a 15% year-over-year (y/y) drop. This result fell short of the seven-year January average of 27,950 units, signaling a potential shift in market dynamics as economic and policy uncertainties mount.

Despite this softer January figure, the broader 2025 order season remains in positive territory, with cumulative net orders from September 2024 through January 2025 up 3% y/y. Over the past 12 months, Class 8 orders have totaled 276,917 units.

Market Dynamics: Tariffs and Policy Uncertainty Introduce Headwinds

The decline in January orders follows several months of strong seasonal comparisons, particularly in the on-highway segment, which accounted for most of the m/m drop. Meanwhile, vocational orders remained flat compared to December.

Several factors may be contributing to the recent shift in order activity, including potential tariffs and evolving regulatory considerations.

• Tariff Concerns:

  • A 25% U.S. tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico—currently on hold for trade negotiations through early March—could significantly increase production costs.
  • A 10% tariff on Chinese imports, effective February 4, could further impact Class 8 trucks and components.
  • With approximately 40% of U.S. Class 8 trucks built in Mexico and 65% of Canada’s Class 8 trucks built in the U.S., trade disruptions could impact supply chains and vehicle pricing.

• Regulatory Considerations:

  • The upcoming EPA 2027 NOx regulations could accelerate or delay fleet purchasing decisions depending on how costs and availability shift in response to tariffs.
  • OEMs and suppliers may explore shifting production strategies to counteract potential tariff impacts, but structural adjustments take time and introduce additional complexities for long-term investment decisions.

Industry Perspective: Navigating an Uncertain Landscape

A 25% U.S. tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico – currently paused for trade negotiations through early March – and a 10% tariff on Chinese imports as of February 4 could significantly increase costs for North American Class 8 trucks and parts if fully implemented and enforced indefinitely. With roughly 40% of U.S. Class 8 trucks built in Mexico and around 65% of Canada’s Class 8 trucks built in the U.S., tariffs and likely counter-tariffs threaten to disrupt supply chains and drive up vehicle prices. Combined with upcoming U.S. EPA 2027 NOx regulations, tariffs could accelerate or delay fleet upgrades. While OEMs and suppliers may explore shifting production to mitigate potential tariff impacts, such changes are complex and will take some time to implement. Ongoing trade negotiations and policy uncertainties may already be influencing investment decisions and long-term planning for fleets, OEMs, and suppliers.

Dan Moyer

Senior Analyst, Commercial Vehicles

Final Data and Additional Resources

January’s preliminary order figures are subject to revision, with FTR set to release final data mid-month as part of its North American Commercial Truck & Trailer Outlook service.

For more information:
📧 Contact FTR at sales@ftrintel.com
📞 Call (888) 988-1699 ext. 1

🔗 To access a chart accompanying this announcement, visit:
https://www.ftrintel.com/class-8-truck-orders