forecasting
SCI
Let’s cut right to it—preliminary North American Class 8 net orders for March came in at 15,700 units. That’s not just a dip; it’s a 14% slide from February and 22% lower than last March. For a month that usually delivers a seasonal boost, this was a bigger-than-expected pullback. And when you consider that the seven-year average for March is 24,760 units, it’s clear we’re operating in a very different landscape.
What’s behind the slowdown?
Several things are at play, and none of them are simple. 
For starters, fleets are staring down a wall of economic and freight market uncertainty—and when visibility is low, investment tends to get put on pause. Add in the looming 2027 EPA NOx regulations, and now you’ve got another reason for fleets to delay equipment upgrades.
And that’s just the domestic picture.
Tariffs are back—and they’re making waves
Tariff tensions are rising again across North America and with China. In fact, new U.S. tariffs and retaliatory actions from trading partners are already in motion. China, in particular, has applied an additional 10% duty on U.S. goods—and responded with tariffs on U.S. exports like LNG, coal, and farm equipment. They’ve also started restricting exports of rare earth minerals like tungsten and bismuth, which are critical in manufacturing.
This geopolitical chess match is doing more than making headlines. It’s driving up costs for trucks, tractors, and parts, putting OEMs and suppliers in a tough spot. Shifting production to avoid tariffs isn’t a quick fix—it’s expensive, complicated, and slow. That leaves the entire Class 8 supply chain in a holding pattern.
What does this mean for 2025 orders?
We’re already seeing the impact. Through March, 2025 net orders are down 25% year-over-year, and the overall order season (which runs from September to March) is down 8% year-over-year. According to FTR’s Dan Moyer, that suggests fleets are likely choosing to wait it out rather than pull forward purchases ahead of cost increases. And with all this uncertainty, who can blame them?
“Persistent uncertainty in tariffs, the economy, freight, and regulations could notably disrupt fleet replacement cycles,” Dan says. And from the data? That’s exactly what’s happening.
So what now?
Final numbers will be available mid-month when FTR publishes the complete data as part of its North American Commercial Truck & Trailer Outlook service. But this early look paints a clear picture: the market is on edge, and everyone from fleets to suppliers is taking a breath before making big moves.
📝 Want to stay ahead of the curve?
Check out the chart that accompanies this report: FTR Class 8 Orders Chart
And don’t forget to follow us on LinkedIn and X @FTRintel for more insights like this.
