forecasting
freightcast
Preliminary data from FTR indicates that North American Class 8 net orders in December reached 31,900 units, a 7% month-over-month decline but a noteworthy 23% year-over-year increase. This figure also outperformed the seven-year December average of 29,716 units, reinforcing positive momentum despite a soft freight environment.
For strategic leaders, this data reflects resilience in fleet investments, even amid broader market uncertainties.
Key Metrics and Trends to Watch
- December Exceeds Expectations
December is traditionally a slower month for Class 8 orders. However, the 2025 order season (September–December 2024) closed with a 6% y/y gain, suggesting that fleets are positioning themselves for opportunities in 2025 despite freight market softness.
What it means: OEMs and fleets have demonstrated an ability to manage seasonal demand fluctuations and maintain confidence in long-term needs, signaling stability in capital investments.
- Full-Year 2024 Recap
Class 8 orders totaled 279,872 units in 2024, an 11% y/y increase. Average monthly orders reached 23,323 units, slightly surpassing replacement demand levels.
Why it matters: This steady growth reflects fleets’ ongoing commitment to renewing and expanding capacity, a critical signal for OEMs planning production strategies and suppliers managing inventory.
- Vocational vs. On-Highway Segments
Both vocational and on-highway segments showed consistent performance in December, with no significant variation in order activity.
Strategic insight: This uniformity indicates that demand drivers are industry-wide, reducing risk for stakeholders with exposure to multiple sectors.
Anticipating 2025 Challenges
While the numbers indicate strength, policy uncertainty could impact order activity moving forward:
- Tariffs on Imports
President-elect Trump’s proposed tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China could disrupt supply chains, particularly as over 40% of Class 8 trucks sold in the U.S. are built in Mexico.
What to monitor: Potential cost increases for fleets and OEMs, as well as shifts in manufacturing strategies to mitigate tariff impacts. - EPA 2027 NOx Regulations
Upcoming emissions standards add another layer of complexity, potentially pulling orders forward in 2025 as fleets prepare for tighter regulations.
Implication: Leaders should remain agile, balancing near-term order activity with long-term regulatory compliance strategies.
We continue to watch the ongoing discussions and developments related to President-elect Trump’s plans to impose immediate tariffs on imports from Mexico, Canada, and China as more than 40% of Class 8 trucks sold in the U.S. are built in Mexico. Tariffs could significantly disrupt supply chains and raise production costs, compounding disruptions already anticipated due to EPA 2027 NOx regulations. Fleets may adjust order and retail demand strategies in response.
Takeaways for Decision-Makers
- Leverage December’s Momentum
December’s strong finish positions 2025 as a year of cautious optimism. Use this momentum to build confidence in forecasts and align resources accordingly. - Prepare for Policy Disruptions
Anticipate how tariffs and regulations could impact costs, supply chains, and fleet purchasing behaviors. Develop contingency plans now to navigate potential disruptions. - Invest in Strategic Flexibility
With demand drivers showing resilience across segments, consider diversified approaches to address varying market conditions.
As we step into 2025, the heavy-duty truck market presents both opportunities and challenges. FTR will continue to provide actionable insights to help leaders stay ahead in this dynamic environment.
For the latest forecasts and analysis, visit FTR’s website. Or click below to sign up for our Complimentary January Webinar or a sample Truck & Trailer Outlook Report.
