forecasting freightcast

Tariffs, Tension, and Tumbling Confidence: A Fragile Start to Q2

FTR Analysts | March 31, 2025

2:27

As we close out March, economic indicators are flashing yellow—and in some cases, red—as inflation and trade tensions begin to reshape the outlook for Q2 2025.

What Happened Last Week

Markets Reacted Sharply: The Dow fell over 700 points Friday as new inflation data and President Trump’s early tariff announcements hit investor confidence.
Inflation Stuck: The Fed’s preferred measure, the Core PCE Index, rose 0.4% in February—up 2.8% year-over-year—suggesting inflation is not easing.
Consumer Confidence Dropped: The University of Michigan index fell to 57.0—its lowest since November 2022—signaling growing anxiety about job security and future price hikes.
Economic Growth Stalled: The Atlanta Fed now projects Q1 GDP at -0.5%, as firms front-loaded imports to beat tariff deadlines.

Lock in your spot at the 2025 FTR Transportation Conference before prices go up! Early bird registration opens tomorrow APRIL 1st —save big and secure access to the data, forecasts, and connections that drive smarter decisions across the supply chain. In today’s uncertain market, FTR equips you with the critical intelligence needed to anticipate disruptions, adapt to changing conditions, and stay ahead of the curve. Don’t miss your chance to join hundreds of industry leaders who rely on FTR’s trusted insights to navigate what’s next.

What to Watch This Week

Trade Policy Clarity Expected: April 2 is being called “Trade Day,” when the administration is expected to release the full scope of its tariff policy.
Sector Spotlight – Auto Industry: With parts manufactured globally, automakers face compounding tariffs that could significantly raise vehicle prices.
Key Data Releases: ISM manufacturing and services indices, factory orders, construction spending, vehicle sales, and March employment data all drop this week.

Navigating What Comes Next

In this environment of uncertainty—marked by rising prices, volatile demand, and shifting trade policies—planning ahead is more important than ever. FTR’s unbiased forecasts offer decision-makers the clarity they need to stay grounded. With more than 40 years of industry expertise, FTR helps supply chain leaders understand how macroeconomic shifts will impact transportation demand, capacity, and costs—so they can prepare, not just react.