April Ends Like a Fading Mushroom: Big Growth Questions Ahead

If April felt like economic whiplash, you’re not imagining things. Between stock market surges, jobs surprises, tariff chaos, and a consumer who talks gloom but spends freely, it’s a month that defies easy headlines. But beneath the noise, important trends are taking shape—and they could define the rest of 2025.

🧩 The Economy’s Puzzle Pieces (And Why They Don’t Quite Fit)

Let’s break down what just happened:

• Stock markets soared at the end of April. Strong job growth and a hint that U.S.-China trade talks might resume pushed the S&P to its longest winning streak since 2004.
• Employment beat expectations, with 177,000 new jobs in April. But revisions to past months took some shine off the report, and signs of weakness are starting to show up.
• GDP went negative in Q1 (-0.3%). But that wasn’t about demand falling off a cliff—it was mostly a result of companies rushing to import goods ahead of the April tariffs.
• Consumer confidence is plunging, but consumer spending is holding up—especially on big-ticket items like autos that were bought in advance of higher prices.
• Tariff turmoil is real. Companies across sectors report confusion, rising costs, and halted plans. The word most often used to describe the business environment? Chaos.

⚠️ Warning Signs from the Factory Floor

Manufacturing data is flashing yellow:

• ISM Manufacturing Index fell to 48.7 (a reading below 50 indicates contraction).
• New orders and exports both declined sharply.
• Tariffs are biting hard in key sectors: electronics, transportation, chemicals, and food processing.
• Executives are delaying decisions and struggling to keep supply chains running smoothly.

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🛍️ The Consumer Conundrum

It’s hard to reconcile this:

• People say they’re worried. Confidence surveys show deep pessimism—especially among middle-aged, higher-income households.
• But people are still spending. Real personal spending rose 0.7% in March, driven by autos and services.
• Inflation is stubborn. Core prices rose at a 3.6% annualized rate in Q1.

💼 Labor Market: Strong Now, But…

• Job growth is still happening, especially in healthcare, business services, and transportation.
• Federal job cuts are accelerating, down 26,000 since January.
• Wage growth is slowing, and job openings are easing. That’s typically a sign that layoffs may follow.

🔮 What Comes Next?

• The Fed is in a bind. Rates stayed unchanged in May, but the scale of tariffs may soon force their hand.
• Markets expect cuts later this year if economic weakness becomes clearer—especially if inflation proves to be a one-time jump rather than sustained.
• Stagflation risk is rising. That’s the nightmare combo of high inflation and weak growth—and it’s notoriously hard to fix.

🧭 Bottom Line

April looked fine at first glance—but the cracks are widening. Tariffs, inflation, and policy uncertainty are distorting normal economic signals. If you're trying to plan ahead, stay focused on:

• How consumer behavior shifts as prices rise
• The next wave of business responses to tariff pressures
• Job market strength—especially in freight, manufacturing, and retail
• Fed decisions as they walk a tightrope between inflation and recession

The data will keep coming. But for now, all signs point to a summer of slowdowns, surprises, and strategy recalibration.

Navigating What Comes Next

In this environment of uncertainty—marked by rising prices, volatile demand, and shifting trade policies—planning ahead is more important than ever. FTR’s unbiased forecasts offer decision-makers the clarity they need to stay grounded. With more than 40 years of industry expertise, FTR helps supply chain leaders understand how macroeconomic shifts will impact transportation demand, capacity, and costs—so they can prepare, not just react.  Check out some of the ways we can help. 

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Lock in your spot at the 2025 FTR Transportation Conference before prices go up! Early bird registration ends May 31st —save big and secure access to the data, forecasts, and connections that drive smarter decisions across the supply chain. In today’s uncertain market, FTR equips you with the critical intelligence needed to anticipate disruptions, adapt to changing conditions, and stay ahead of the curve. Don’t miss your chance to join hundreds of industry leaders who rely on FTR’s trusted insights to navigate what’s next.  Register here.