forecasting
SCI
Economic data released this week painted a mixed picture for freight markets. Job growth remained positive, trucking conditions continued to tighten in certain areas, fuel volatility returned, and rail volumes showed renewed strength across several commodity groups.
Here are five issues that stood out most in this week’s economic outlook.
1. The U.S. Economy Added 115,000 Jobs in April
The U.S. economy added 115,000 payroll jobs in April while the unemployment rate held steady at 4.3%.
One of the more notable developments was where the growth occurred. Trade, transportation, and utilities led all major sectors in hiring during the month, outperforming even health care. Transportation and warehousing alone added more than 30,000 jobs.
Within freight transportation, trucking employment also showed signs of stabilizing. For-hire trucking added 4,300 payroll jobs in April — the strongest increase since September 2023.
2. Spot Freight Rates Continue Moving Higher
Spot market pricing strengthened again this week, with total broker-posted truckload rates reaching another all-time high.
All major equipment types posted gains:
- Refrigerated rates increased after several weeks of declines
- Dry van pricing continued seasonal improvement
- Flatbed rates rose for the 18th consecutive week
Total all-in spot rates were 32% higher than the same week last year. Even excluding fuel-related adjustments, spot pricing remained up nearly 26% year over year.
Seasonal factors are also beginning to influence the market, with the annual International Roadcheck event expected to create another short-term tightening event for truck capacity.
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3. Diesel Prices Reverse Course Sharply
Fuel markets turned volatile again this week as diesel prices surged higher following several weeks of declines.
The national average retail diesel price jumped 28.9 cents per gallon to $5.64.
The Midwest saw the sharpest movement, with prices increasing more than 61 cents per gallon in a single week.
Crude oil markets continue reacting to uncertainty surrounding geopolitical tensions involving Iran, contributing to rapid swings in energy pricing. At the same time, U.S. distillate inventories — a key indicator for diesel supply — fell to their lowest level since 2014.
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4. Rail and Intermodal Volumes Strengthen
North American rail traffic continued improving, with total rail volume increasing 3.4% year over year. Carloads rose 3.9%, while intermodal traffic increased 3.0%.
Several commodity categories posted particularly strong growth:
- Metallic ores increased 38.7%
- Agriculture volumes rose 10.9%
- Petroleum shipments climbed 9.8%
Intermodal volumes also strengthened across most U.S. Class I railroads, while Mexican carrier GMXT posted particularly strong growth of 18.1% year over year.
Coal and forest products remained weaker areas within the rail market, particularly due to ongoing pressure tied to Canadian forest product tariffs.
5. Tariff Uncertainty Continues to Influence Transportation Markets
Trade policy uncertainty returned to the spotlight this week after the U.S. Court of International Trade ruled against the Trump administration’s February tariff proclamation tied to Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974.
The ruling centered on the administration’s use of “balance-of-payments” authority to justify a 10% global tariff, with the court determining that the rationale did not align with Congressional intent under the law.
Tariff-related dynamics continue appearing across transportation markets:
- Passenger vehicle imports surged in March as companies continued adjusting purchasing behavior around trade uncertainty
- Forest product rail volumes remained pressured due in part to tariffs affecting Canadian products
- Manufacturing employment remained mixed across several industrial categories
As trade policy developments continue evolving, transportation markets are still responding to shifting sourcing decisions, inventory strategies, and commodity flow patterns.
