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The regulatory landscape is always a significant focus for industries like trucking and rail, and with the transition of administrations, there’s heightened attention on what’s next. While there’s been considerable discussion about government efficiency and the regulatory environment, let’s break down the anticipated changes in key areas, including safety, environmental policies, and specific rail regulations.
Trucking: Stability in Safety, Shifts in Environmental Rules
Safety Regulations
From a safety standpoint, the trucking industry isn’t likely to see major shifts in the near term. The Biden administration’s regulatory agenda has not aggressively pursued new safety measures. Notable examples include:
- Speed Limiters: Though long-discussed, this regulation has seen delays across multiple administrations and remains unlikely to advance quickly.
- Broker Transparency: This controversial issue, tied to private sector relationships, is expected to be shelved under a Republican administration. With the comment period ending just after the inauguration, it’s unlikely to move forward.
This conversation came from the Q&A part of our 2025 Transportation Outlook webinar. You can watch the question and answer here.
Environmental Regulations
Environmental regulations, however, could see significant adjustments. The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is a primary target for potential rollbacks or timeline extensions under a Republican administration. Key areas include:
- Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Regulations: Significant changes, including softening or delaying timelines, are expected.
- NOx Rule: While this rule, slated for implementation in January 2027, is likely to remain intact due to its advanced stage, there could still be efforts to undermine its enforcement through budgetary measures or other administrative actions.
Businesses in the trucking industry should prepare for potential environmental regulatory shifts but can view the NOx rule as a largely settled matter.
Missed the Webinar?
2025 Transportation Outlook: Transportation Challenges in a Shifting Political Landscape
Rail: Limited Impact but Key Wild Cards
CARB In-Use Locomotive Rule
One of the most significant regulatory changes for rail is the California Air Resources Board (CARB) in-use locomotive rule. This regulation requires a waiver from the EPA to proceed, and its prospects are now less certain under a Republican administration. While it was more likely to advance under Biden or Harris, its future is now in question.
Other Rail Policies
- Two-Person Crews: While changes in crew requirements are possible, the overall impact on the rail industry would be limited.
- Surface Transportation Board (STB) Policies: Regulatory adjustments here may occur but are unlikely to be transformative.
What This Means for the Industry
- Trucking: Stability in safety regulations offers predictability, but businesses should stay vigilant about environmental policy changes. The GHG rule is the most likely area of adjustment.
- Rail: While regulatory changes are expected to be minimal, the CARB locomotive rule remains a critical watchpoint for potential impacts.
Conclusion
The regulatory environment for trucking and rail industries is poised for a period of relative stability in safety regulations but potential shifts in environmental policies. Monitoring developments and maintaining operational flexibility will be crucial for adapting to these changes effectively. Stakeholders should stay informed and engaged, particularly regarding environmental rules that could significantly impact compliance strategies and operational planning.
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