Rail Traffic Rebounds After Winter Disruptions

After a challenging few weeks for North American rail traffic, recent data signals a notable rebound. Severe winter weather played a major role in disrupting rail volumes, contributing to significant declines in the prior week. However, the latest figures show a strong recovery, with total rail traffic rising 4.8% year-over-year (y/y), driven by a 2.6% increase in carloads and a 6.8% rise in intermodal traffic.

Carload Trends: Recovery in Most Commodities

Carload volumes saw broad-based improvement, with eight out of ten AAR commodity groups reporting y/y gains. The strongest performers included:

• Grain: +5.8%
• Coal: +4.9%
• Motor vehicles: +4.5%

The only two commodity groups experiencing declines were:

• Forest products: -2.9%
• Nonmetallic minerals: -0.4%

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Regional Performance: Mexico Leads the Way

While U.S. carload growth was the weakest (+1.4%), it was followed closely by Canada (+2.5%). The most dramatic growth came from Mexico’s GMX, which surged 28.5% y/y—though this was largely due to weak prior-year volumes.

Despite this week's rebound, year-to-date (YTD) carload volumes remain down 2.4% y/y, with metal products seeing the steepest decline (-10.2%). Other commodities posting YTD declines include coal, forest products, grain, motor vehicles, and nonmetallic minerals. The only sectors with positive YTD growth are chemicals, farm products (excluding grain), and petroleum products.

Intermodal Traffic: A Strong Rebound

Like carloads, intermodal traffic suffered from weather disruptions in prior weeks. In fact, two weeks ago, intermodal posted its third negative y/y growth rate in twelve months. However, the most recent week reversed that trend, breaking a three-week streak of week-over-week declines.

• U.S. intermodal volumes surged 8.8% y/y, with all four Class I railroads posting gains.
• Mexican intermodal traffic (GMX) soared 61.5% y/y, though this, like carloads, was due to a weak 2024 comparison.
• Canadian intermodal volumes declined 6.0% y/y, marking continued weakness in the sector.

So far in 2025, intermodal is outpacing carloads, with YTD volumes up 6.9% y/y.

Looking Ahead: Rail Traffic Faces External Pressures

While rail traffic has regained momentum, broader industry challenges remain. New tariff measures across North America and China have introduced fresh uncertainties. A 30-day pause on new tariffs for Canada and Mexico allows room for negotiations, but China's additional 10% duty on imports—paired with retaliatory measures on U.S. LNG, coal, and farm equipment—could reshape trade flows. With China accounting for 30% of U.S. ocean imports and 11% of U.S. coal exports, the impact on rail traffic will be closely monitored.

For now, the rail industry will be looking to sustain this rebound, particularly in intermodal, while keeping an eye on commodity-specific headwinds and global trade shifts.

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