forecasting
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A Quiet Week, but Not Without Headlines
With the ongoing U.S. government shutdown limiting new data releases, this week’s rail market updates were light—but far from uneventful. To start, the deadlines are approaching for the legislation introduced by the Mexican government last month, targeting trucks and railcars carrying petroleum products into Mexico.
Meanwhile, rail traffic data showed modest gains across North America, driven by strength in key carload sectors.
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Rail Market Update Podcast
This article was created from an excerpt from FTR's biweekly rail podcast with Joseph Towers.
Mexico’s New Regulation: Tight Deadlines, Heavy Demands
In late September, the Mexican government rolled out new requirements affecting U.S. petroleum exports to Mexico moved by rail or truck (non-pipeline modes).
The rule mandates that:
- Each piece of equipment must display a large QR code.
- GPS tracking must be installed, transmitting data every 30 seconds to the Mexican government.
While many trucks already meet the GPS requirement, the timeline for railcars—just 30 days to install GPS units—is unrealistic. The QR code mandate, which took effect September 25, gives shippers only 20 business days to apply codes once they receive them.
FTR is monitoring this closely, as the policy could create near-term logistical challenges for cross-border energy movements.
North American Rail Traffic: Up Slightly in Early October
For the week ending October 11, 2025, total North American rail traffic rose 0.3% year over year, according to the Association of American Railroads (AAR).
- Carloads: +1.5%
- Intermodal units: –0.8%
Despite mixed performance, most commodity groups saw year-over-year gains, led by grain, non-metallic minerals, and motor vehicles.
Commodity Performance Overview
Carload growth was widespread, with the following standouts:
- 🌾 Grain: +10.0%
- 🪨 Non-metallic minerals: +9.7%
- 🚗 Motor vehicles: +7.4%
- 🛢️ Petroleum and chemicals: +5.5% and +4.1%, respectively
However, two categories continue to underperform:
- 🧱 Metallic ores and metals: –10.8%
- 🌲 Forest products: –5.6%
Intermodal: Weakness in the West, Gains in the East
After two consecutive weeks of improvement, intermodal volumes slipped, down 3.3% year over year in the U.S.
- Eastern carriers (CSX, Norfolk Southern) posted moderate growth, due in large part to weak 2024 levels, resulting from the port strikes.
- Western carriers (BNSF, Union Pacific) saw notable declines, with Union Pacific continuing to underperform.
The uneven results still reflect distortions from the 2024 Eastern and Gulf Coast port strike, which created weaker comparison points last year.
Canada and Mexico Add Balance
- Canadian carriers reported modest growth: +0.8% overall.
- CN: Slightly positive
- CPKC: Minor decline
- Mexico’s GMX posted a standout +60.5% year-over-year gain—reflecting both a weak 2024 baseline and notably high nominal volumes this fall.
Upcoming Events: Connect with FTR
I’ll be sharing additional insights and forecasts at several upcoming industry events:
- 📍 Southeast Association of Rail Shippers
October 21–22 | Atlanta, GA - 📍 FTR State of Freight Symposium
November 4 | Houston, TX - 📍 Rail Equipment Forum (with Railroad Financial Corp.)
November 5 | Houston, TX
If you plan to attend, I’d love to connect—whether it’s to talk market trends, equipment outlooks, or data insights.
FTR will continue tracking regulatory updates, freight flows, and macroeconomic indicators to provide the industry with the clarity needed for strategic decisions.
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