Shipper Conditions Deteriorate as Fuel Costs and Capacity Pressures Intensify

The freight market became significantly more difficult for shippers in March as transportation costs and market pressures escalated across the full-load freight environment. According to FTR’s latest Shippers Conditions Index (SCI), conditions weakened sharply to a reading of -18.9 — one of the most negative readings in the history of the index.

The decline reflects a combination of rising fuel costs, tightening capacity utilization, and unfavorable freight rate conditions that continue to pressure transportation budgets and operational planning for shippers across North America.

The February SCI reading of -11.9 had already pointed to the toughest freight environment for shippers in nearly four years. March conditions deteriorated even further, highlighting how quickly market pressures can intensify when fuel volatility and capacity constraints begin moving in the wrong direction simultaneously.

As transportation leaders continue navigating uncertainty tied to fuel, inflation, and shifting freight dynamics, the latest SCI reading reinforces the importance of maintaining visibility into market conditions and forecasting trends before they directly impact procurement and budgeting strategies.

Avery Vise, FTR’s vice president of trucking, commented: “Only once in the SCI data, which dates to 2000, did the index suggest more unfavorable overall conditions for shippers than in March. Exactly four years earlier, the fuel component was not quite as negative, but freight rates and utilization were notably more unfavorable. However, in March 2022, rates and utilization were beginning to move in a favorable direction while today those factors are rising challenges. We expect market conditions to stabilize over the next quarter or so, but they don’t look favorable for shippers over the two-year forecast horizon.”

The SCI measures four core components of the freight market:

• Freight demand
• Freight rates
• Fleet capacity
• Fuel prices

Together, these metrics provide a high-level view of the transportation environment facing shippers. A positive SCI reading reflects favorable shipping conditions, while negative readings indicate increasingly difficult market dynamics.

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Looking ahead, the freight market remains heavily influenced by macroeconomic uncertainty, energy market volatility, and evolving capacity trends. While FTR expects conditions to stabilize somewhat over the coming quarters, the longer-term outlook suggests shippers may continue facing elevated transportation challenges well into the forecast horizon.

FTR’s May Shippers Update also includes additional commentary examining how artificial intelligence is beginning to influence broader economic indicators beyond data center construction and consumer spending.

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