---
title: Shippers See Some Relief in July—But Challenges Are Lurking Ahead
description: Shippers face challenges despite slight improvement in July's Shippers Conditions Index. Explore market dynamics, future risks, and expert insights to navigate the freight landscape.
---

[State of Freight TODAY ](https://today.ftrintel.com)

# [Shippers See Some Relief in July—But Challenges Are Lurking Ahead](https://today.ftrintel.com/sci-september-2025)

 Written by [The FTR Experts](https://today.ftrintel.com/author/experts) | 9/30/25 3:00 PM

If you’re a shipper, July brought a bit of good news—though not quite enough to tip the balance into “favorable” territory. FTR’s **Shippers Conditions Index (SCI)** improved from **-3.6 in June to -2.0 in July**. That’s still in negative territory, but the direction is encouraging.

So, what’s driving this shift?

- **Freight dynamics were more favorable** for shippers.
- **Rates hit their most favorable point since last October.**
- **Fuel costs**, however, continued to be a headwind.

### Looking Ahead: Near Neutral, But Risks Are Rising

The SCI outlook is hanging close to neutral for much of 2026—but several factors could push conditions back into more negative territory:

- **Driver supply pressures**: Preliminary payroll data suggests trucking capacity is already tighter than we thought.
- **Regulatory crackdowns**: New scrutiny on foreign nationals holding CDLs and English language proficiency could thin out available drivers.
- **Insurance costs**: Record-high premiums add to the burden carriers face.
- **Tariffs**: The new 25% tariff on heavy trucks may limit fleets’ ability to expand once demand picks back up.

> As Avery Vise, FTR’s VP of Trucking, puts it: “A weak freight market might keep these pressures at bay for a while, but shippers could face a much hotter market once volume recovers.”

### Why the SCI Matters

The Shippers Conditions Index blends four key factors—**freight demand, freight rates, fleet capacity, and fuel prices**—into a single score that tracks market health for shippers. Positive numbers signal a favorable environment; negative numbers mean headwinds.

With July’s reading, we’re still in challenging territory—but the improvement suggests shippers are catching their breath, at least temporarily.

👉 **Want to see the full charts and analysis?** Visit [FTR’s Shippers Conditions Index](https://www.ftrintel.com/shippers-conditions-index).

 

[View full post](https://today.ftrintel.com/sci-september-2025)

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