Shippers See Some Relief in July—But Challenges Are Lurking Ahead

If you’re a shipper, July brought a bit of good news—though not quite enough to tip the balance into “favorable” territory. FTR’s Shippers Conditions Index (SCI) improved from -3.6 in June to -2.0 in July. That’s still in negative territory, but the direction is encouraging.

So, what’s driving this shift?

• Freight dynamics were more favorable for shippers.
• Rates hit their most favorable point since last October.
• Fuel costs, however, continued to be a headwind.

Looking Ahead: Near Neutral, But Risks Are Rising

The SCI outlook is hanging close to neutral for much of 2026—but several factors could push conditions back into more negative territory:

• Driver supply pressures: Preliminary payroll data suggests trucking capacity is already tighter than we thought.
• Regulatory crackdowns: New scrutiny on foreign nationals holding CDLs and English language proficiency could thin out available drivers.
• Insurance costs: Record-high premiums add to the burden carriers face.
• Tariffs: The new 25% tariff on heavy trucks may limit fleets’ ability to expand once demand picks back up.

As Avery Vise, FTR’s VP of Trucking, puts it: “A weak freight market might keep these pressures at bay for a while, but shippers could face a much hotter market once volume recovers.”

Why the SCI Matters

The Shippers Conditions Index blends four key factors—freight demand, freight rates, fleet capacity, and fuel prices—into a single score that tracks market health for shippers. Positive numbers signal a favorable environment; negative numbers mean headwinds.

With July’s reading, we’re still in challenging territory—but the improvement suggests shippers are catching their breath, at least temporarily.

👉 Want to see the full charts and analysis? Visit FTR’s Shippers Conditions Index.