Truck Freight Recovery Postponed: February TCI Shows Mixed Signals

FTR’s latest Trucking Conditions Index (TCI) shows a modest improvement in February, rising to -0.21 from January’s -2.56. While this shift nudges conditions closer to neutral territory, the broader outlook has taken a turn for the worse—and carriers should brace for a longer road to recovery.

What’s Behind the Numbers?

• Freight volumes and truck utilization improved modestly.
• Fuel cost increases were less severe than in previous months.
• But… freight rates weakened, keeping the overall index in negative territory.

These factors combined to create a near-neutral operating environment, but the real concern lies in what’s ahead.

A Tougher Road Ahead for Carriers

According to Avery Vise, FTR’s Vice President of Trucking:

“With global tariffs and a full-fledged trade war against China, we have reduced our economic and freight forecasts. Higher inflation, rising interest rates, and a weakening labor market—combined with a pullback from Q1 import surges—are creating a more challenging near-term environment.”

In short, carriers shouldn’t expect a meaningful recovery until early 2026.

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