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In the week ending March 14 (Week 10 of 2025), the truck freight spot market continued to see a recent pattern of stronger flatbed performance as van equipment metrics remain weak. The obvious question: Why?
First, though, the details on broker-posted rates and load postings in the Truckstop system from the latest week:
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Why Are Flatbed Spot Metrics So Much Stronger?
At the outset, we need to be clear that the directional moves by all three equipment types are roughly in line with seasonal expectations for the spot market. Dry van and refrigerated spot rates and volume tend to settle a bit during the first couple of months of the year, and flatbed usually starts a long, slow recovery.
So we expect dry van and reefer to be weak, and they are, although perhaps somewhat more so than expected. The real question is what is happening with flatbed, especially in volume. Flatbed volume also was strong y/y last fall, but it wasn’t accelerating w/w to the degree that it has recently, especially over the past four weeks.
Why? We do not have data on the nature of the individual loads, but we do know where the volume is originating, and that could be a clue.
Regional data indicates that the Southeast, the largest market for flatbed freight, has seen the greatest increase in activity. Flatbed load availability originating in the Southeast was at its highest level – by far – since July 2022.
So perhaps we are seeing rebuilding beginning from Hurricane Helene, which damaged parts of Florida, Georgia, and North Carolina especially. Or maybe it is due to Hurricane Milton, which cut a swath through central Florida.
The problem with this theory is that it does not explain strength in the Northeast and, arguably, a couple of other regions. Spot load volume in the Northeast has been rising steadily and, like the Southeast, is at its strongest level since July 2022. The Midwest has not seen the consistent gains that the Southeast and Northeast have, but in the latest week it had the strongest load availability in nearly two years.
The South Central region also has seen steady growth, although it is not clear that those gains are much stronger than seasonal expectations.
Where flatbed load volume is not strong is the West. Load availability on the West Coast has barely changed this year while Mountain Central volume has been declining.
This pattern leads us to a working theory as to the root cause. As you probably know, President Trump announced early in his term that he would be imposing tariffs on steel and aluminum imports, effective March 12. Manufacturers, therefore, had a window of opportunity to bring in additional steel and aluminum materials, including products fabricated from those metals.
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This article was created from an excerpt from FTR's weekly Trucking podcast with Avery Vise.
Suppose we had a surge in steel and aluminum imports leading up to the March 12 deadline. Imports coming into the East Coast from places like Brazil or Europe – or even by ship from Canada through the Great Lakes – might move heavily by flatbed truck rather than rail. Why? The distances to manufacturing centers are more conducive to truck than rail in many cases.
On the other hand, metals coming into the West Coast from Asia would be more likely to move by rail due to the much larger distances to manufacturing centers. The one region that would see no impact would be the Mountain Central, which has no ports.
In other words, the recent regional trends in flatbed volume square with how a pull-forward in steel and aluminum imports might affect that volume.
Again, we do not have detailed data on the nature of the loads and we won’t have relevant trade data for weeks, so this is just speculation. However, if it turns out that flatbed volume starts to level off and then fall after the week ended March 14, we will have more confidence in this theory. However, if flatbed volume continues to rise strongly, clearly something else is happening, such as stronger residential construction, perhaps, or an improved manufacturing sector requiring more raw and intermediate metals products typically hauled by flatbed carriers.
