Diesel Shock, Strong Equipment Orders, and a Tightening Trucking Market

Highlights from FTR’s Trucking Market Update – Episode 355

This week’s Trucking Market Update covered several developments shaping the freight market, from a historic surge in diesel prices to strong Class 8 truck orders and continued strength in the spot market. Below are the key highlights from the latest data and analysis.

Diesel Prices Surge to Record Weekly Increase

The biggest development this week was the unprecedented jump in diesel prices.

• The national average price for on-highway diesel rose 96.2 cents in one week, reaching $4.859 per gallon.
• This is the largest one-week increase ever recorded.
• The previous record increase was 74.5 cents during the early stages of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022.

The spike appears tied to volatility in crude oil markets following geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. West Texas Intermediate crude briefly surged above $119 per barrel before settling closer to the mid-$90 range.

For trucking operations, especially small fleets, the impact was immediate:

• Fuel cost per mile increased by roughly 14 cents in a single week (assuming 7 mpg).
• That pushes fuel costs to more than 69 cents per mile.

  TMU - Episode 355

Whether the spike proves temporary will depend largely on energy market stability in the coming weeks.

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Trucking Employment Remains Weak

Employment data suggests the trucking labor market is still soft.

• Truck transportation payrolls declined slightly in February.
• Overall trucking employment is now at its lowest level since September 2020.

   

More granular sector trends show:

• General freight truckload employment at its lowest level since 2014
• LTL employment falling sharply in January
• Parcel and local delivery employment declining significantly year over year

Despite the soft employment picture, average weekly earnings remain near record highs.

Carrier Conditions Continue to Improve

FTR’s Trucking Conditions Index (TCI) improved further in January.

• TCI rose to 9.3, up from 4.85 in December.
• This marks the most favorable carrier environment in roughly four years.

   

While the outlook remains positive overall, surging fuel prices could temporarily push the index negative in March.

Longer term, higher fuel costs could tighten capacity if financially weaker carriers exit the market.

Class 8 Orders Show Strong Momentum

Fleet investment remains strong despite economic uncertainty.

• North American Class 8 net orders jumped 47% month over month.
• Orders were 159% higher year over year.

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February marked:

• The highest order level since September 2022
• The third straight month of 20%+ year-over-year growth

Stronger freight demand and clearer regulatory conditions appear to be supporting equipment investment.

Spot Market Strength Continues

The truckload spot market remains resilient, particularly for flatbed equipment.

Key trends for the latest week:

• Flatbed spot rates increased again, reaching their highest level since October 2022.
• Total spot rates rose 4.3 cents, also hitting the highest level since late 2022.
• Dry van and refrigerated rates declined slightly, but both remain strong compared with recent years.

  TMU - Episode 355

Year-over-year comparisons are especially notable:

• Total spot rates were about 15% higher than the same week in 2025.
• Load postings were nearly 39% higher year over year.

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Flatbed strength appears linked to stronger manufacturing activity and ongoing data center construction.

Spot Market Insights

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Broader Economic Signals

Several macroeconomic indicators were also discussed:

• U.S. payroll employment fell by 92,000 jobs in February, though labor strikes accounted for a significant portion of the decline.
• Retail sales were sluggish, rising only modestly after adjusting for inflation.
• Vehicle sales rebounded, with auto and light truck sales climbing 6.3% month over month.

  TMU - Episode 355

Mortgage rates also moved back up to 6% after briefly dipping below that threshold.

Bottom Line

Despite volatility in fuel markets and some softness in employment data, the freight market continues to show signs of improvement:

• Carrier conditions are strengthening
• Equipment orders are surging
• Spot market rates remain elevated

The key variable to watch in the near term will be energy markets, as sustained diesel price increases could quickly alter operating economics across the industry.

If you want deeper analysis and the full set of charts discussed in this update, download the accompanying slide deck here.

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