Prescription for a continued surge in imports

U.S. imports of goods were at or close to record levels in the first quarter as businesses pushed to bring in as much stuff as they could – or at least as they were comfortable with bringing in – ahead of anticipated tariffs. In March, which was the final month before President Trump announced the specifics of his global tariff plan, one commodity especially accounted for the sharp increase. Also, because one specific is country is by far the dominant supplier of that commodity, it placed much higher than usual in the pecking order of goods exporters to the U.S.

Pharmaceutical imports: One category, outsized impact

U.S. consumer goods imports rose 28% month-over-month (m/m) in March. That figure demands a closer look, as it’s heavily skewed by one category: pharmaceuticals.

Pharmaceutical imports jumped 71% m/m. Excluding pharmaceuticals, imports of consumer goods increased a rather pedestrian 3.1% growth.

The outsized impact of drug imports mirrors what happened in January when imports of gold bullion surged to previously unimaginable levels, thus powering a surge in industrial supplies imports and overall imports.

A third category – computers – also has been the dominant strength in another category of imports: capital goods. Computer imports did not experience the extreme levels of growth seen in pharmaceuticals and pure gold, but they did distort the growth in the broader category of capital goods imports.

Ironically, all three categories – pharmaceuticals, bullion, and computers – were exempted from global tariffs in April. In other words, all of that stocking up turned out to be unnecessary.

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Ireland’s rise, China’s slide

This rush to secure pharmaceuticals before potential tariffs produced one of the more surprising trade shifts in March: Ireland rose to become the third-largest goods exporter to the U.S., surpassing China.

Ireland supplies nearly 30% of all U.S. pharmaceutical imports, far outpacing Switzerland, the second-largest source, at less than 9%. That heavy concentration in a single high-value product allowed Ireland to temporarily leapfrog China in total goods exports to the U.S.

China’s dip to fourth place was not entirely unexpected given that this data is not seasonally adjusted. The Lunar New Year in January or early February – depending on the year – traditionally softens Chinese exports in February or March as it take several weeks for the holiday slowdown to show up due to ocean shipping transit times.

This year’s drop was more pronounced than usual, though.

• March exports from China to the U.S. totaled $29.4 billion, the lowest for any March since 2013.
• Not only is this data unadjusted for seasonality, but it’s also not adjusted for inflation. Therefore, in real terms – adjusted for inflation – trade volumes may have been weaker than March 2010.
• As of early March, the tariff rate on imports from China already was 20 percentage points higher than it was in 2024.

Mexico maintains top position – but growth slows

Mexico remained the top exporter of goods to the U.S. in March, posting record-high export levels of $48 billion. Yet the strength in that number is more about scale than momentum.

• The 15.2% m/m increase seems strong, but it was the weakest March increase since 2020.
• Confusion over United States Mexico Canada (USMCA) Agreement compliance and which goods might be subject to tariffs likely moderated the typical spring surge.

Similarly, Canadian exports rose just 2.1% m/m – consistent with March 2024 but well below the double-digit increases seen in more stable years.

Broader import trends still point to resilience

Despite the skew from pharmaceuticals, gold, and computers, broader import trends remained relatively strong. Total U.S. goods imports rose 31% m/m and 5.4% year-over-year (y/y). When those three high-impact categories are excluded:

• Imports still increased 22% m/m and 4.3% y/y, suggesting a healthy – if uneven – underlying demand.

This nuance is critical. While some of the gains were tactical responses to tariff uncertainty, the rest of the market showed a more measured and consistent rebound.

Final insight: Trade data isn’t just numbers—it’s behavior

The March import surge underscores a recurring theme in global trade: the power of anticipation. Tariff threats – even when not imposed in reality – can distort flows, shift supplier choice, and drive short-term spikes in activity. For transportation professionals and supply chain planners, this serves as a reminder that policy headlines must be treated as early indicators – not just background noise. In other words, even idle threats will have consequences that you cannot ignore.

Understanding what drives movement in the data is just as important as the data itself. In today’s climate, successful planning depends on the ability to distinguish real demand signals from reactive buying—and to forecast accordingly.

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