Stable Hiring, Active Enforcement, and Seasonal Shifts

Week of November 10, 2025

Episode 339 Summary

In this week’s Trucking Market Update, Avery Vise walks through the latest data shaping the trucking landscape — even as the federal government remains partially shut down. With official reports on hold, the discussion focused on what is available: FMCSA safety data, private employment numbers, and spot market trends heading into the holidays.

It’s another week where the details matter — and the story is one of stability, steady hiring, and shifting enforcement patterns.

Government and Policy Context

Congress appears close to passing a short-term funding measure to keep the federal government open through January. Once that happens, expect a few weeks before agencies like the Bureau of Labor Statistics and Census Bureau resume publishing data.

Meanwhile, the Supreme Court heard arguments over whether President Trump can use emergency powers to impose tariffs — a case with potential long-term implications for trade and freight flows. A ruling is expected before the end of the year.

FMCSA Data in Focus

Two major FMCSA datasets stood out this week: the Drug & Alcohol Clearinghouse and English Language Proficiency (ELP) enforcement. Both provide insight into labor activity and safety trends in the absence of other federal data.

Drug & Alcohol Clearinghouse

FMCSA’s September report offers a useful look at CDL driver hiring activity. The headline takeaway: steady, if unspectacular, growth.

Key data points:

• Pre-employment queries (a proxy for new driver hiring) were up 7.4% year-over-year.
• This growth suggests a stable employment environment, even without government payroll data.
• Some data irregularities remain — August’s unusually low “return-to-duty” completions followed by a sharp rise in September likely reflect processing delays rather than real shifts.

Overall, the clearinghouse data shows no major surprises — a good sign of equilibrium in driver hiring and compliance activity.

English Language Proficiency (ELP) Enforcement

Since ELP enforcement became an out-of-service (OOS) violation on June 25, inspection data shows a steady stream of citations, particularly near the southern border.

Enforcement highlights:

• 29,000+ total violations recorded since late June
• 8,200+ (28%) resulted in out-of-service actions
• Texas and Wyoming lead in OOS citations, while California has not yet enforced the rule
• Most violations occurred in the U.S.–Mexico border zone
• Enforcement activity peaked in August and has since stabilized through early fall

These numbers suggest enforcement is active but leveling off, with limited evidence that it’s constraining capacity in a meaningful way.

Cabotage Connection

Some industry watchers speculated that ELP enforcement could be an indirect way to identify illegal cabotage — foreign carriers hauling freight between two U.S. points. However, early data doesn’t support that theory.

Data snapshot:

• Of 18,300 violations among Mexico-based carriers, only 61 resulted in OOS actions
• Canadian carriers accounted for just 30 total violations, all resulting in OOS orders
• Less than 1% of all OOS actions since June 25 involved non-U.S.-based carriers

While enforcement is consistent, it’s not yet clear whether it’s effectively addressing cabotage.

Spot Market Snapshot

The spot market for the week ending November 7 (Week 44) reflected typical seasonal patterns — firming rates for dry van and reefer, softer flatbed rates, and overall stability ahead of holiday shipping peaks.

Spot rate comparison:

Key takeaways:

• Dry van rates rose for the first time in three weeks.
• Reefer rates increased five cents — the strongest weekly gain in ten weeks.
• Flatbed rates declined slightly, consistent with seasonal trends.

Load activity dropped 8.2% week-over-week and remains 25% below the five-year average, though dry van loads gained 2% year-over-year.

Labor and Economic Indicators

Even without the official jobs report, private-sector data from ADP gives some direction:

• +42,000 private payroll jobs added in October
• Growth led by trade, transportation, and utilities (+47,000)
• Modest losses in manufacturing, business services, and information

This pattern suggests freight-related employment remains steady even as other sectors show softness.

Meanwhile, mortgage rates rose for the first time in five weeks, averaging 6.22% according to Freddie Mac — a minor increase but one that may temper housing-related freight demand.

The Bottom Line

Even with limited federal data, a clear narrative is emerging:

• Driver hiring remains stable based on FMCSA and private employment indicators
• ELP enforcement is steady, but not materially reducing capacity
• Spot rates are holding near seasonal norms
• Macroeconomic signals remain mixed, but no sign of a major downturn

Freight demand may not be booming, but it’s proving resilient amid uncertainty — a steady hand in an otherwise uneven economy. As federal agencies resume reporting in the weeks ahead, we’ll get a clearer view of how these dynamics are shaping early 2026.

🎧 Listen to the full episode and download the charts: ftrintel.com/trucking-podcast