How Freight•cast™ Connects the Dots: From Economic Shifts to Modal Splits

At FTR, we don’t just track freight—we forecast the forces behind it. Freight volumes don’t move on their own. They follow economic signals, production trends, and shifts in commodity flow. That’s why we designed our Freight•cast™ model to work hand-in-hand with our economic forecasting engine, creating a unified view of how goods move and why they move the way they do.

It starts with the data—both freight and economic.

We begin by aligning two powerful models:

• Freight•cast™ Model – Historical freight movement data across all transportation modes

• Economic Model – Broad-based outlook on GDP, industrial production, and sector-level economic indicators

Once those two models are synchronized, we’re able to forecast the economy and industrial activity, then translate that insight into freight demand. This is where the Freight•cast™ process really sets itself apart.

From Macro to Micro: How the Forecast Narrows

After projecting overall economic activity, we zoom into the commodity level. Why? Because understanding what is moving is the first step to predicting how it moves.

• We forecast demand for specific commodities (like metals, lumber, or automotive goods)

• These forecasts let us pinpoint volume shifts across industries

• Then, we assess which mode of transportation those commodities typically use (truck, rail, or intermodal)

The key insight?

Mode shifts usually don’t come from shippers making new choices. They come from shifting commodity volumes.

In other words, it’s not that shippers suddenly prefer intermodal—it's that the commodities that rely on intermodal are growing. That’s a subtle but critical distinction.

What does this mean for your transportation strategy?

• Modal splits are driven by sector growth, not volatility in preference

• A spike in a rail-reliant commodity can move the needle more than dozens of isolated decisions

• When you understand the upstream economic signals, you can better prepare for downstream capacity needs

Final Thought:
By forecasting the why behind freight, not just the what, FTR gives supply chain leaders a clearer lens into the future. Whether you're managing modal strategy, planning network shifts, or forecasting capacity, this integrated methodology helps you stay ahead—not just react.

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