--- title: "The History of FTR: Modeling Risk, Revealing Opportunity" description: Explore FTR's journey in freight forecasting, from foundational metrics to advanced modeling, revealing risks and opportunities in the transportation market. image: https://today.ftrintel.com/hubfs/social%20images/Blog%20images/2025/06-June/FreightCast%20Blog%206%20-%20Modeling%20Risk.png --- ![](https://today.ftrintel.com/hs-fs/hubfs/social%20images/Blog%20images/2025/06-June/FreightCast%20Blog%206%20-%20Modeling%20Risk.png?width=1600&height=500&name=FreightCast%20Blog%206%20-%20Modeling%20Risk.png) forecasting freightcast Collect # The History of FTR: Modeling Risk, Revealing Opportunity ![Eric Starks, Chairman of the Board](https://today.ftrintel.com/hs-fs/hubfs/Marketing%20Collateral/FTR%20Headshots%20and%20Bios/Headshots/EricStarks_20210719_017-USE%20THIS.jpg?width=48&height=48&name=EricStarks_20210719_017-USE%20THIS.jpg) Eric Starks, Chairman of the Board June 6, 2025 The History of FTR: Modeling Risk, Revealing Opportunity 4:06 In the final installment of our history series, we explore how FTR's freight forecasting journey evolved from foundational metrics to advanced modeling—and ultimately, to **understanding risk and revealing opportunity**. FTR’s Freight•cast model isn’t just about providing a forecast. It’s about answering a more powerful question: *What happens if…?* ### From Forecasting to Foresight Once we built a robust model grounded in freight demand, productivity, and equipment utilization, we had something even more valuable: the ability to trace economic inputs all the way through the transportation system. Take **housing starts**, for example. If that number moves, we can immediately project the ripple effects: - What does this mean for **flatbed freight volumes**? - How does it impact **demand for railcars** carrying lumber or construction materials? - Will there be pressure on the **truck equipment market**? With Freight•cast, every assumption is connected. It allows us to run **sensitivity analyses** that give clients more than just a number—they get a narrative of cause and effect. ### A Real-World Scenario: Hours of Service Changes This modeling power proved especially useful during regulatory shifts like the **Hours of Service** rule changes. We asked: *What if drivers operate 15 minutes less per day on average?* ![a truck driver out of his truck](https://today.ftrintel.com/hs-fs/hubfs/AI-Generated%20Media/Images/a%20truck%20driver%20out%20of%20his%20truck.jpeg?width=244&height=244&name=a%20truck%20driver%20out%20of%20his%20truck.jpeg)The results were eye-opening: - **Productivity dropped significantly**, meaning carriers needed more drivers to haul the same amount of freight. - **Utilization tightened**, creating pressure on both capacity and rates. - **Driver demand spiked**, which in turn reshaped rate expectations and delivery dynamics. This wasn’t speculation—it was scenario-based intelligence that clients could use to plan, price, and pivot. ### Millions of Data Points, One Unified Model Today, FTR processes **millions of data points** every month—forecasting over **80,000 series** that span modes, commodities, and equipment types. But quantity isn’t the point. **Clarity** is. With Freight•cast, everything flows from a common set of assumptions. Whether you're a **shipper**, **carrier**, **broker**, or **equipment manufacturer**, the output is aligned and comparable. That was a key goal from the beginning—**apples to apples** across the system. ![2025 FTR Conference_Inspring Insight Await (1)](https://today.ftrintel.com/hs-fs/hubfs/2025%20Conference/Social/2025%20FTR%20Conference_Inspring%20Insight%20Await%20(1).jpg?width=1080&height=1080&name=2025%20FTR%20Conference_Inspring%20Insight%20Await%20(1).jpg) ### 2025 FTR Transportation Conference Join hundreds of industry decision-makers at the 2025 FTR Transportation Conference, September 8–11 in Indianapolis, where the future of freight is forecasted with precision. Get the data, insights, and connections you need to navigate what's next in trucking, rail, intermodal, and equipment. [ Learn more & register ](https://www.ftrconference.com/register-now) ### Defining and Measuring Risk—Both Ways Too often, people associate “risk” with negatives. But at FTR, we define risk as **potential for deviation**—and that includes **upside risk**. Maybe the economy outperforms expectations. Maybe freight volumes surge unexpectedly due to a supply chain shift. Our model helps clients identify those possibilities, not just prepare for worst-case scenarios. When we *can’t* model a risk? We explain why. Because transparency is part of our promise. > ### "Risk isn’t just a downside—it's potential for deviation. And with Freight•cast, we help you see what happens next, from both sides." ### Objectivity in an Emotional Industry Let’s face it: transportation markets can be emotional. When conditions change rapidly, decisions are often made in a rush—based on instincts, headlines, or pressure. That’s where Freight•cast shines. It offers a structured, objective lens—built from 40+ years of economic and freight market expertise. It’s not just about the data. It’s about **removing guesswork**, **grounding strategy**, and **moving forward with confidence**. --- ### A Final Word FTR didn’t set out to become the freight forecasting leader by building the flashiest model. We did it by staying relentlessly focused on clarity, credibility, and client needs. Today, the Freight•cast tool brings together all we’ve built over decades: macroeconomic data, freight intelligence, equipment insights, and a deep understanding of what moves the market. Thanks for joining us on this journey. We’re proud to support an industry that quite literally keeps the world moving—and even prouder to be your partner in planning for what’s next. --- Want to catch up on the past history of Freight•cast™ blogs?  Click on the blog you want to see. - [![Jan7 (1)](https://today.ftrintel.com/hs-fs/hubfs/social%20images/Blog%20images/2025/01-January/Jan7%20(1).png?width=1920&height=1080&name=Jan7%20(1).png) ](https://today.ftrintel.com/the-evolution-of-freight-cast-ftrs-freight-model) - [![FreightCast 2 (1)](https://today.ftrintel.com/hs-fs/hubfs/social%20images/Blog%20images/2025/02-February/FreightCast%202%20(1).png?width=1920&height=1080&name=FreightCast%202%20(1).png) ](https://today.ftrintel.com/understanding-freightcast) - [![Freightcast 3 (1)](https://today.ftrintel.com/hs-fs/hubfs/social%20images/Blog%20images/2025/03-March/Freightcast%203%20(1).png?width=1920&height=1080&name=Freightcast%203%20(1).png) ](https://today.ftrintel.com/freightcast-commodities) - [![Freightcast Modal Shifts #4](https://today.ftrintel.com/hs-fs/hubfs/social%20images/Blog%20images/Videos/Eric%20Starks/Freightcast%20Modal%20Shifts%20%234.png?width=1920&height=1080&name=Freightcast%20Modal%20Shifts%20%234.png) ](https://today.ftrintel.com/freightcast-part-4-modal-share) - [![History of FTR Part 5](https://today.ftrintel.com/hs-fs/hubfs/social%20images/Blog%20images/2025/05-May/History%20of%20FTR%20Part%205.png?width=1920&height=1080&name=History%20of%20FTR%20Part%205.png) ](https://today.ftrintel.com/freightcast-part-5-metrics-to-market)   [![FTR_webinar_July 2025_Generic LI](https://5867190.fs1.hubspotusercontent-na1.net/hub/5867190/hubfs/Marketing%20Collateral/Events/Webinars/2025/July%20SOF%20Key%20Issues%20Complimentary%20Webinar/Social%20Media%20Graphics/FTR_webinar_July%202025_Generic%20LI.jpg?width=1200&length=1200&name=FTR_webinar_July%202025_Generic%20LI.jpg) ](https://www.ftrintel.com/keyissues) **Join us for *Key Issues in Transportation*, a complimentary mid-year webinar** that delivers expert insights on how tariffs, capacity shifts, and rate trends are shaping the freight landscape across all modes. Whether you're moving goods by truck, rail, or intermodal, this session will help you stay ahead of change and plan smarter for what's next. [![FTR_SOF Today 1-1](https://5867190.fs1.hubspotusercontent-na1.net/hub/5867190/hubfs/social%20images/Blog%20images/2025/FTR_SOF%20Today%201-1.jpg?width=1200&length=1200&name=FTR_SOF%20Today%201-1.jpg) ](https://www.ftrintel.com/state-of-freight-today) Are you signed up to receive updates on all our FTR complimentary content?  If not, check out our **State Of Freight Today** offerings! ## Share this post [mailto:https%3A%2F%2Ftoday.ftrintel.com%2Ffreightcast-part-6-modeling-risk](mailto:https%3A%2F%2Ftoday.ftrintel.com%2Ffreightcast-part-6-modeling-risk) ## Keep reading [![](https://today.ftrintel.com/hs-fs/hubfs/Marketing%20Collateral/Blogs/Blog%20images/2026/July/_Class%208%20July%202026%20blog.png?width=1600&height=500&name=_Class%208%20July%202026%20blog.png) class 8 trucks forecasting ### Class 8 Orders Surge Again as Industry Nears 2026 Production Capacity ](https://today.ftrintel.com/class-8-july-2026) [![](https://today.ftrintel.com/hs-fs/hubfs/Marketing%20Collateral/Blogs/Blog%20images/2026/June/_RMU%20June%2026%202026%20blog.png?width=1600&height=500&name=_RMU%20June%2026%202026%20blog.png) intermodal carload Rail ### Rail Traffic Holds Steady While Intermodal Extends Its Winning Streak ](https://today.ftrintel.com/rmu-june-26-2026) ```json { "@context" : "https://schema.org", "@type" : "BlogPosting", "author" : { "@type" : "Person", "name" : "Eric Starks, Chairman of the Board", "url" : "https://today.ftrintel.com/author/eric-starks" }, "dateModified" : "2025-06-25T19:06:45.577Z", "datePublished" : "2025-06-06T13:00:00.000Z", "headline" : "The History of FTR: Modeling Risk, Revealing Opportunity", "image" : [ "https://today.ftrintel.com/hubfs/social%20images/Blog%20images/2025/06-June/FreightCast%20Blog%206%20-%20Modeling%20Risk.png" ], "mainEntityOfPage" : { "@id" : "https://today.ftrintel.com/freightcast-part-6-modeling-risk", "@type" : "WebPage" }, "publisher" : { "@type" : "Organization", "logo" : { "@type" : "ImageObject", "url" : "https://today.ftrintel.com/hubfs/FTR%20Logos%20and%20Icons/FTR_Logo_Primary_FullColor.png" }, "name" : "FTR | Transportation Intelligence" } } ```