forecasting
freightcast
This week on FTR’s State of Freight Podcast, I wanted to step back from the headlines and focus on what the data is really saying about the rail market early in 2026.
Between winter storms disrupting service, mixed commodity performance, and railcar deliveries surprising to the upside, there’s a lot to unpack right now for shippers, lessors, and investors alike.
Let me walk you through the big takeaways.
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Storms Skew the Weekly Numbers—So It Pays to Zoom Out
When I first looked at the most recent weekly rail traffic numbers, they didn’t look great.
Severe winter weather across much of the U.S.—especially in the South and Southeast—dragged volumes lower:
- Carloads fell 10.2% year over year
- Intermodal dropped 15.0%
- Nearly every commodity category posted declines
That kind of week can make it feel like something bigger is going on. But in this case, weather was a major factor.
When I widened the lens to include the first four weeks of the year, the picture changed:
- Overall carloads are up 3.0% year to date
- Intermodal is still soft, down 2.4%
In other words, the weekly data was noisy. The broader trend is more balanced.
Grain Is Carrying the Load—Autos and Forest Products Are Not
Looking across the AAR commodity groups helps explain where strength and weakness are showing up.
When you strip away the weather noise and focus on year-to-date trends, the story becomes clearer. Grain is doing the heavy lifting, up 18.6%, with non-metallic minerals and chemicals also posting solid gains—while autos and forest products continue to drag on overall performance amid weaker North American volumes, higher rates, and trade pressures. The result is a rail market that’s holding together in some core sectors but still searching for broader-based momentum.
ARCI Results: Deliveries Beat Expectations, Backlogs Keep Sliding
The second half of the episode turned to rail equipment—and this is where we saw one of the more notable developments.
Fourth-quarter railcar deliveries totaled 8,224 units. That came in well above what many in the industry, including us at FTR, had expected.
That pushed total 2025 deliveries north of 31,000 cars, beating even our more optimistic forecasts.
Orders, however, are still lagging:
- Q4 orders came in just under 6,000 cars
- That’s better than the prior quarter, but still low by historical standards
- Because deliveries outpaced orders, industry backlogs fell again—to roughly 23,400 cars
The message here is pretty straightforward: production surprised to the upside in Q4, but likely at the expense of 2026 deliveries.
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Rail Market Update Podcast
This article was created from an excerpt from FTR's biweekly rail podcast with Joseph Towers.
What I’m Watching Going Forward
For me, this episode was another reminder of how careful we need to be when interpreting short-term freight data.
Weather can distort weekly numbers. Commodity groups can move in very different directions. Equipment indicators can send mixed signals when deliveries surge but orders remain subdued.
Right now, the rail market is giving us a nuanced signal:
- Underlying carload demand is holding up better than the weekly headlines suggest
- Grain and construction-related traffic are providing support
- Autos and forest products remain pressured
- Railcar production picked up in Q4, but order activity remained low
For deeper analysis and ongoing updates, listen to the full episode of FTR’s Rail and Intermodal Update or contact Joseph Towers directly at jtowers@ftrintel.com.
