Shippers Face a Tougher Market as Fuel Prices Spike

FTR’s Shippers Conditions Index (SCI) took a dip in June, sliding to -3.6—the lowest in three years. The main culprit? A sudden spike in fuel prices tied to tensions with Iran. While those tensions have since eased, the impact was enough to make June feel like an especially tough month for shippers.

The good news: if you set fuel aside, conditions look more neutral heading into the near term.

What’s Driving the Numbers?

According to Avery Vise, FTR’s VP of Trucking, the market is still soft, but not as soft as it looked just a month ago:

• Freight demand: muted, but showing hints of stability
• Tariffs: recent hikes create uncertainty, though they could be offset by stronger activity from lower financing costs and fresh tax cuts
• Capacity: surprisingly resilient, but rising insurance costs and regulatory pressures could weaken it
• Fuel prices: the biggest wild card, with June’s surge demonstrating how fast conditions can swing

In short, the freight market is stuck in a balancing act—neither great for shippers, nor disastrous.

Beyond the SCI: What Else to Watch

The August issue of FTR’s Shippers Update dives deeper into issues beyond fuel and tariffs:

• The ripple effects of a potential transcontinental railroad merger
• Early results from new enforcement of the English language proficiency requirement for truck drivers

These topics highlight how market conditions are about more than just rates and capacity—they’re also shaped by regulation and industry shifts.

Download a sample report today and see all the insights provided by our monthly Shipper's Update.

Why the SCI Matters

The Shippers Conditions Index isn’t just a number. It’s a snapshot of how four critical factors—freight demand, rates, fleet capacity, and fuel prices—combine to shape the environment for shippers.

• Positive scores = favorable conditions
• Negative scores = tougher conditions

At -3.6, June’s reading sends a cautionary signal: conditions aren’t dire, but shippers need to stay alert to changing costs and policies.

Looking Ahead

Shippers face a freight environment that’s far from predictable. Volatility in energy, uncertainty around tariffs, and shifting regulatory dynamics all add layers of complexity.

That’s where FTR’s forecasting tools come in—helping companies cut through the noise and prepare for what’s next.

That’s why the 2025 FTR Transportation Conference (Sept 8–11) is so valuable — and you don’t have to be in Indianapolis to benefit.

✅ Join us virtually to access the same expert forecasts, market insights, and industry discussions — all without the travel.
✅ Watch sessions live or catch replays on your schedule.

Don’t miss your chance to gain clarity in uncertain times.

👉 Register now, in person or virtually, at www.ftrconference.com.

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Free Webinar – October 2, 2025
In It Together: 2026 Economic and Freight Market Outlook for the Food Industry

Join Food Shippers of America and FTR’s experts—Eric Starks, Avery Vise, and Joseph Towers—for timely insights on how tariffs, economic pressures, and shifting demand will shape the 2026 freight market. Moderated by Darica Schneider, President of FSA, this free webinar will help shippers and carriers prepare for capacity shifts and find stability in uncertain times. Register today to save your spot!