Consumer Spending
diesel
forecasting
FTR’s latest Trucking Market Update podcast highlighted several important developments shaping the freight market this spring, including stronger trucking employment, continued spot market momentum, rising diesel pressures, and signs of shifting consumer activity. Episode 364 also revisited key regulatory developments and broader economic indicators that continue influencing freight demand across the supply chain.
Trucking Employment May Be Stabilizing
One of the biggest developments this week was a notable rebound in for-hire trucking employment.
After an extended period of contraction, trucking payroll employment increased by 4,300 jobs in April — the strongest monthly increase since September 2023. Revised data from prior months also added another 1,200 jobs to earlier estimates.
Key Employment Highlights
- For-hire trucking employment reached 1.47 million jobs
- General freight truckload added 2,400 jobs in March
- LTL employment was essentially flat
- Local general freight employment declined by 2,000 jobs
- Trucking employment remains 3.1% below pre-pandemic levels
FTR noted that stronger freight rates likely are contributing to improving employment conditions across portions of the industry.
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This article summarizes this week's FTR Trucking Market Update Podcast! Tune in to hear the entire episode and download the accompanying slides.
Parcel and Delivery Hiring Surged in April
The broader transportation and warehousing sector also posted strong gains during April, led by a major jump in parcel and local delivery hiring.
What Stood Out
- Transportation and warehousing added 30,300 jobs
- Couriers and messengers added 37,900 jobs
- Retail-related hiring also strengthened
- Warehouse clubs and supercenters added 18,300 jobs
The podcast suggested stronger consumer spending activity — potentially supported by larger tax refunds — may be contributing to the increase in goods movement and delivery demand.
Diesel Prices Remain a Major Concern
Although the national average diesel price was nearly unchanged week-over-week, regional volatility remains significant.
Fuel Market Takeaways
- National diesel prices dipped just 0.1 cent
- Midwest diesel prices climbed 7.3 cents
- Midwest pricing reached a new regional record
- Ultra-low sulfur distillate inventories fell to their lowest level since 2014
Crude oil prices also remained elevated near $100 per barrel amid ongoing uncertainty surrounding the Iran conflict.
Carrier Conditions Remain Favorable
Despite fuel-related pressure, FTR’s Trucking Conditions Index showed that carrier fundamentals remain relatively strong.
The index moved slightly negative in March following the diesel surge, but freight-related conditions — especially rates — continued offsetting much of the fuel impact.
Key Index Insight
- Freight rates provided enough positive momentum to offset most fuel-related deterioration
- Carrier conditions remain generally favorable heading into summer
Spot Rates Continue Climbing Ahead of Roadcheck
Spot market conditions strengthened again during week 18 as broker-posted rates increased across all major equipment types for the second consecutive week.
Spot Market Highlights
- Total spot market rates rose 6.7 cents per mile
- Flatbed rates increased for the 19th straight week
- Dry van spot rates reached their highest level since April 2022
- Refrigerated spot rates also continued trending higher
- Total market rates were approximately 39% above prior-year levels
Flatbed equipment remained the strongest-performing segment:
- Flatbed rates rose 7.7 cents week-over-week
- Rates were just shy of all-time highs
- Flatbed volumes continue benefiting from industrial and construction-related demand
FTR also noted that International Roadcheck week historically creates upward pressure on spot pricing as many drivers temporarily leave the market during inspection week.
Spot Market Insights
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Housing Market Shows Mixed Signals
Housing activity remained uneven but showed some areas of stabilization.
Existing Home Market
- Existing home sales were flat month-over-month
- Inventory levels increased sharply
- Supply reached 4.4 months
- Median prices increased just 1.0% year-over-year
New Home Market
- New home sales rose in both February and March
- March sales increased 3.3% year-over-year
- Median new home prices fell 6.2% year-over-year
- Median pricing reached its lowest level since July 2021
Data Centers Continue Driving Construction Activity
Construction spending data highlighted the continued strength of data center development.
Construction Highlights
- Residential construction spending rose 1.6% month-over-month
- Nonresidential construction spending softened slightly
- Data center construction increased 34.3% year-over-year
The ongoing expansion of AI infrastructure and technology investment continues to support construction-related freight activity in several sectors.
Trade Activity Reflects Tariff and AI Trends
International trade data continued reflecting both tariff-related buying shifts and growing AI investment trends.
Trade Trends to Watch
- Passenger vehicle imports rose 21.7% month-over-month
- Computer-related imports remained elevated
- Semiconductor imports softened modestly month-over-month
- Computer imports remained up more than 126% year-over-year
The podcast tied much of the technology-related import strength to ongoing artificial intelligence and data center investment activity.
Regulatory and Legal Developments Remain in Focus
Two major policy developments also remained front and center this week.
Key Regulatory Updates
- A federal court invalidated Section 122 tariffs implemented earlier this year
- Appeals court judges allowed FMCSA’s nondomiciled CDL rule to remain in place during ongoing legal review
- FMCSA estimates the rule could eventually impact nearly 200,000 drivers
Planning for tighter capacity, cost pressure, and market uncertainty? So are your peers.
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