Trailer Orders Rebound in December — But the Recovery Signal Remains Unclear

December brought a sharp rebound in U.S. trailer orders, but the underlying market story remains one of caution rather than recovery.

FTR data show that U.S. trailer net orders surged 86% month-over-month in December to 24,282 units, a meaningful sequential improvement after a weak fall ordering period. That said, orders were still down 4% year-over-year and well below the 10-year December average of more than 33,000 units — an important reminder that the broader demand environment remains soft.

What Drove the December Rebound?

The December improvement was driven largely by dry van orders and appears to reflect timing dynamics rather than a fundamental shift in demand.

Several factors likely contributed:

• Deferred orders from September through November
• Efforts by fleets to get ahead of potential tariff-related cost increases
• Ongoing antidumping and countervailing-duty investigations into van trailers imported from Canada, China, and Mexico
• Improved planning visibility following post-November clarity around Class 8 tariffs and EPA 2027 NOx regulations
• Early signs of stabilization in spot freight markets

Together, these dynamics helped unlock pent-up demand, but they do not yet signal a sustained ordering recovery.

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Freight Fundamentals Still Matter

Despite the December rebound, it remains premature to call a turning point.

A more durable, growth-oriented ordering environment is unlikely to emerge until freight fundamentals and fleet profitability show clearer improvement. Cost pressures, muted freight volumes, and cautious capital allocation continue to weigh heavily on fleet decision-making.

That reality becomes even clearer when looking at the early read on the 2026 order season. September through December 2025 trailer orders declined 20% year-over-year, despite December’s notable sequential gain.

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Production Hits a Multi-Decade Low

Weak demand has continued to push OEMs to aggressively manage output.

U.S. trailer production fell further in December to 11,801 units, down 13% month-over-month and 6% year-over-year. This marked the lowest production level since September 2010.

December did, however, bring a modest positive signal: orders exceeded production for the first time since March 2025. As a result:

• Backlogs rose 16% month-over-month to 84,501 units
• The backlog-to-build ratio improved to 7.2 months

While this offers modest near-term production visibility, backlogs remain down 21% year-over-year, underscoring how subdued the order environment has been overall.

Tariffs and Trade Uncertainty Continue to Shape the Market

According to Dan Moyer, Senior Analyst for Commercial Vehicles at FTR, policy-driven cost inflation and trade uncertainty are now the primary forces shaping pricing and demand in the U.S. trailer market.

Section 232 tariffs on steel, aluminum, and downstream products have established a higher cost base with little prospect of near-term relief. At the same time, the potential for higher van trailer costs tied to ongoing antidumping investigations may already be influencing sourcing and pricing decisions.

The result is a market characterized by selective purchasing behavior and an increased focus on total cost of ownership rather than broad-based expansion.

Looking Ahead to 2026

December’s rebound is a welcome data point, but it does not yet change the broader narrative. Sustained improvement will depend on whether freight demand, fleet profitability, and policy clarity continue to improve into early 2026.

FTR will be closely monitoring order trends, production adjustments, and backlog sustainability as the new order season unfolds.

To view the chart accompanying this release, visit:
https://www.ftrintel.com/trailer-orders

New: Expanded Intermodal Chassis Reporting Now Included

To better capture evolving equipment dynamics, FTR has expanded its Truck & Trailer Outlook reporting to include a new U.S. intermodal chassis trailer dataset.

This enhancement adds:

• Coverage of both international and domestic chassis fleets
• Monthly indicators for net orders, production, and backlog
• Historical data extending back to 2014
• Integration into the U.S. Trailer Monthly Market Indicators – Database (Excel)

As intermodal volumes, port activity, and equipment availability remain critical variables for shippers, carriers, and investors, this added visibility provides a more complete picture of trailer and chassis supply trends across freight modes.  

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