The past three months have unfolded in generally a positive fashion. The winter surge has ended, and rapid expansion of vaccination has occurred. As we expected the economic restart produced solid growth in Q1, which we expect to continue for the rest of 2021. But all is not sunshine, lollipops and rainbows, as evidenced by a weak April jobs number.
We think our forecast scenario is reasonable, especially for the next few quarters. At the same time we have a gut feeling that it is optimistic. As we have been saying for more than a year, we are in an unprecedented situation with many uncertainties. These involve different time frames and cut in different directions. Some could offset; some could be synergistic. Probabilities are impossible to calculate.
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