In 2010, the U.S. and the trucking industry began a recovery from the Great Recession that lasted a decade. In 2020, we tried to do it all in 10 months. In this analysis, we compare the trucking industry today to the industry in 2010.
Enjoy this in-depth commentary from our exclusive analysis produced for our SOF INSIGHTS publication - available to premium subscriber clients. Learn about becoming a subscribing client to our transportation intelligence services.
The following document is a discussion and explanation of how FTR deals with data revisions and specifically addresses large changes in the FED Industrial Production numbers. We encourage industry participants to read it and gain a better understanding of how, and why, industry data changes on a regular basis (both historical and outlooks).
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We are past the halfway point in 2021 and it is apparent that a recovery is well underway for the global economy. Despite the burst in economic activity, it is still too early to call it a post-COVID era, as infections remain at high levels in some places and variants are still forcing authorities to place restrictions on key areas across the globe. Still, it is a full-fledged economic recovery, and the World Bank projects it will be the most robust in 80 years.
Government data suggests that driver hiring has screeched to a halt. If the end of generous unemployment benefits doesn’t work, what will? Perhaps the market's challenge isn't really the total number of drivers anyway.
Enjoy this excerpt from our exclusive analysis produced for our SOF INSIGHTS publication - available to premium subscriber clients. Learn about becoming a subscribing client to our transportation intelligence services.
Headlines
• Rebound in auto output key to May’s strength in industrial production and manufacturing output.
• Retail sales fade slightly in May after two stimulus-fueled months of record spending.
• Housing starts stabilize with a small gain after three months of volatile activity.
• General freight truckload Producer Price Index posts its strongest gain ever in May.
• Rail carload rebounds to pre-holiday volume but intermodal still lags.
The latest Federal Reserve Beige Book noted that economic activity increased from early April to late May as vaccinated consumers returned to normal activities and businesses dropped pandemic restrictions. Economic activity is picking up as vaccinations are increasing and restrictions are being relaxed. Firms benefited from an $800 billion assistance for small businesses and owners are yearning for a return to a “normal” economy. Along the way, Major League Baseball is slated to return to full capacity and the largest state economy, California, will shed its final COVID-era restrictions on June 15 and give bars, restaurants, and other businesses a green light on the road back to “normal”. Despite a strong advance, the recovery is not without problems. Despite still having large numbers of unemployed people, labor shortages persist in the United States. Supply chain shortages are rampant across the manufacturing sector and inflation is emerging as a threat to future growth. This article will attempt to shed some light on future economic developments and to show that the economic transformation that we are seeing now will hopefully develop into a self-sustaining economic recovery.
Headlines
• U.S. economy sees a disappointingly small gain of 266,000 jobs in April.
• ISM manufacturing index pulls back a bit on production, employment challenges.
• April soars past March’s record in grants of operating authority for new trucking firms.
• Truck spot market sets volume and rate records.
• Intermodal and rail carload volumes were little changed in the latest week.
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The past three months have unfolded in generally a positive fashion. The winter surge has ended, and rapid expansion of vaccination has occurred. As we expected the economic restart produced solid growth in Q1, which we expect to continue for the rest of 2021. But all is not sunshine, lollipops and rainbows, as evidenced by a weak April jobs number.
We think our forecast scenario is reasonable, especially for the next few quarters. At the same time we have a gut feeling that it is optimistic. As we have been saying for more than a year, we are in an unprecedented situation with many uncertainties. These involve different time frames and cut in different directions. Some could offset; some could be synergistic. Probabilities are impossible to calculate.
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